2024-25 Enrollment predictions

It's time to start looking at the prospects of 2024-25 enrollment on campuses. I will add to this post as information emerges. Two major keys to robust enrollment are retention (which everyone knows) and the other is capturing those who have stopped out. Students who transfer or stop out have special issues that institutions must address. Looking back at stop out figures from 2020 forward, the available number of adults who attended college but did not receive a degree is 36.8 million. The stop-out possibilities include lots of transfers, which is becoming easier in places like Colorado. Transfer among institutions is increasing in importance and some are attempting to remove the enrollment, optimal choice, human, and lost opportunity costs of reenrolling.

It has been obvious for a number of years that prospective students of diverse backgrounds were a focus for recruiters. The assumption of conservatives was that this was about politics and affirmative action. The broader issue is that the general U.S. population is becoming much more transracial. As this shift occurs, any business or organization that wants to thrive has to figure out how to appeal to students of all cultural backgrounds. The good news is that Common Application numbers increased in 2023-24, with increased diversity. The increase in Common Application submissions also seems to be increasing direct admission to some institutions. To secure strong future enrollment, institutions not only have to appeal, but also to engage students of all cultural backgrounds so that they stay and eventually graduate.

Review of the Supreme Court's rejection of affirmative over the last year reveals a mostly negative impact on institutional diversity. Amherst and Tufts are examples where minority enrollment declined. One strategy to protect diversity in enrollment is for more institutions to remain test optional. The diversity mix across institutions reveals significant variation including increases for campuses that prioritized increasing economic diversity.

International student enrollment has buoyed U.S. institution's enrollment and maintaining these numbers is essential. While applications shift from China to India, many institutions will have to recenter their recruitment and campus services. If Trump returns to the White House policy proposals from GOP legislation presumably designed to address anti-Semitism could make it tougher for U.S. institutions to remain attractive to international students.

Cost remains an important factor in many prospective students' decisions with parents priority on cost even higher. Approximately 9 out of 10 families are willing to sacrifice in order to fund higher education with almost half going into debt in order to make make it happen. A recent study indicated that the bottom line cost isn't the only issue. Timing, amount, and transparency of financial aid in comparison to the full cost of attendance are all factors. Financial pressures have increased the number of students who work part-time during their enrollment. With under-sourced students more heavily influenced by cost, the higher incompletion rates for FAFSA forms among Latina/o and Black students is troubling. Issues with FAFSA and uncertainty about financial aid may result in enrollment declines for many colleges with small colleges most heavily impacted. By August 2024 declining enrollment resulted in budget cuts at University of New Orleans, Western Illinois, Rider, Valparaiso, Queens of Charlotte, Bethel, and more. While some reports indicated that cuts were slowing by August, campuses with extreme decline in enrollment, like Saint Augustine, will have dire consequences.

Research determined that approximately one third of currently enrolled students have considered dropping out within the last six months. Multiple studies attribute the primary causes to be stress, mental health concerns, and cost of attendance but the impact of declining confidence in the value of U.S. higher education could be a contributing factor. Graduates for 2025 are pessimistic about the employment prospects. A U.S. News survey found that 70% of current students reported some form of mental health challenge, yet most have not sought help on campus. Meeting student mental health needs comes in a variety of forms including traditional in-person counseling, tele-health, and early warning initiated by peers. One of the biggest questions is if the rise in reports of mental health concerns is the result of learned helplessness, which may best be resolved by helping students learn to seek help and become more resilient. Conventional wisdom indicating that exercise is a way to manage stress should not be ignored.

The first experiences at college have a big impact on students and greater flexibility in offering orientation has emerged post-pandemic. Institutions that focus on creating a sense of belonging for all will both attract and retain at higher levels than institutions that ignore the importance of human and interpersonal connection. Providing clear pathways for students to complete their degrees also attracts and retains student through to completion. Institutions are best served by making sure students know about the financial, logistical, and emotional resources available to help them persist to graduation.

Business officers expressed concern about the future when they gathered in the summer of 2024. With enrollment so central to generating enough revenue to balance budgets, repercussions of campus demonstrations and the uncertainty of the U.S. presidential election weighed heavily in conversations about the coming year. Several issues related to concern for employment when they graduate are on the tope of many students's minds. Flagship state institutions that cannibalize regional universities, picking off students who would otherwise not be able to qualify, undermine what should be a state-coordinated enrollment effort serving all students and institutions. Some of the institutions that cannibalized others may suffer criticism as a result of not being able to accommodate all students in residence halls.

There are opportunities to adjust to enrollment decline of traditionally aged students. The fact that increasing life longevity provides multiple, rather than just one, opportunity to pursue advanced education is one promising option. Rethinking campus space and downsizing outdated buildings is another opportunity that institutions such as the University of Toledo and Indiana University of Pennsylvania are pursuing. The key elements that require attention as enrollments shift include; brand management, aligning academic programs with demand and workforce changes, pricing, and retention/completion.

The fragility of U.S. higher education is partially due to its number of small private colleges. These institutions are particularly vulnerable as enrollments shift and decline, resulting in a 2% loss in the number of institutions last year. One president admonished colleagues to start preparations for potential mergers of campuses before conditions become so urgent that they end up fraught with anxiety, betrayal, and broken dreams. Home to more college campuses than any other state except California, Pennsylvania is reviewing how to reorganize and refocus higher education in the face of declining enrollments.