International student enrollment surges

While there were mixed messages about overall 2023-24 enrollment throughout U.S. higher education, international 2022-23 student enrollment surged beyond pre-pandemic levels. The surge in applications may partially be attributable to fake applications, the result of prospects originating from the broader southeast Asian region. The eventual figures for 2023-24 will hopefully sustain the increasing number of international students, although the mix has shifted from China to India and Africa.

As the enrollment of international students from China slows, the number of Indian students seeking admission in U.S. institutions is replacing them. For Indian students and their families, enrollment in high quality U.S. programs is viewed as opening doors that would not have opened if they studied in India. Unfortunate delays in processing of visas for students from India may reduce the number who will actually enroll in 2024.

As an alternative strategy, the need for higher education opportunity may also be met by establishing international branch programs and campuses in India. The cooling of interest in branch initiatives may result in more select institutions' unwillingness to take the risk associated with these ventures.

A boon for U.S. institutions, international students' interest in study in Canada and Australia declined according to a recent survey. The "policy volatility in Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom is unsettling international enrollments." Australia's decision to limit international student enrollment to 270,000 and Canada's move to limit international enrollment by 10% will make it much more competitive to study there, and likely reduce its desirability. The UK hopes to right its higher education ship with the naming of new ministers of education, which could bring changes attractiveness to international students. The projected decline in UK domestic students could drive even greater pressure to increase international student numbers.

Predictions were that the prospects of former President Trump returning to the Whitehouse could impact international students' interest. With 41% of all international graduates remaining in the U.S. from 2012-20, one of the most important factors is their OPT opportunities which could be at risk under another Trump administration. As post-election concerns swirled around Trump's return to the White House, institutions will need to focus on reassuring international students that they are welcome. International students can enhance their experience in multiple ways, especially by adopting different approaches to friendship and mentoring. Warning for international students to be back before Trump's January 20, 2025, inauguration could be unsettling.

Brown University's "need blind" admission of international students will likely result in more and increasingly well-qualified applicants. Time will tell if this turns into a trend as international students are increasingly seen as valuable not only for the tuition they pay, but the value they bring to the learning community. Analysts warn that increasing competition from higher education providers like Canada may erode gains in current enrollment due to complications in obtaining visas and rising costs. The decline in China's economy is almost sure to result in continued erosion of the number of Chinese students coming to the U.S.

On the other side, institutions need to make sure that international students are not characterized, or profiled, in ways that subjects them to assumptions, stereotypes, and targeting. An essay by an instructor of English offers a specific type of profiling in relation to AI at the University of Manitoba. Profiling of various sorts include language proficiency, privilege, and social engagement.

If U.S. institutions want to continue hosting international students, taking them seriously is of paramount importance. The release of Supporting International Students in U.S. Higher Education: A Theory-Based Approach (Roberts & Ammigan, 2024) could help education leaders improve the experience of international students, retaining those who are now in the U.S. and also contributing to positive experiences that translate to encouragement for others to follow.