2023-24 enrollment predictions

Unless higher education can somehow convince the public to insist on more state allocations to help stem the rise in tuition, enrollment uncertainty will continue into next year and probably beyond. A survey of admissions directors indicated that over half missed their enrollment targets for 2023. Other trends reflected in the survey are that overturning affirmative action will lead to less diversity, recruitment strategies are moving toward attracting transfers, and the number of test optional institutions is increasing.

There was some recovery from the pandemic dip but Doug Shapiro of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center indicates that enrollment numbers stabilized at a level 1.2 million lower than in 2019. Some thought that the class that should have entered in 2020 would bolster post-pandemic numbers were very low. A study by EAB of 20,000 high school graduates in 2023 complicating projections when it found that 20% potentially planned to opt out of college attendance for a variety of reasons.

Early reports were that the 2023 undergraduate enrollment would be 2.1 percent higher, the first increase since 2020. Later reports indicated that 2023 enrollment was up only 1.2 percent with community colleges experiencing the largest increases and Spring 2024 enrollment confirmed a 2.5 percent increase. The bad news about the numbers is that, although total enrollment increased, first-year enrollment declined and the drop was most pronounced among white students at four-year institutions with more selective admissions standards. Might the Common App have helped? Fourteen institutions tried direct admission in 2023-24, admitting approximately 30,000 students who were from more diverse backgrounds. With this success, the Common App is further expanding in 2024.

Although early indications of 2024-25 applications show stronger resurgence recruitment strategies will have to address a number of complicating factors. Application numbers are up and acceptance rates are declining. Applications for Black and Latino students increased by 12% and 13%, confirming the speculation that numbers would increase if the process is simplified. The unfortunate flip side of recruitment is that Black and Latino students are more likely to drop out during their studies, with emotional stress and financial challenges the most frequently cited reasons. Early applications coupled with early decisions are likely to yield the best enrollment figures so institutions will be scrambling to make sure they are at the party. Some campuses are reaching far beyond their former geographic boundaries to secure their numbers. While increases are possible for some institutions, Harvard reported a drop of 17% in the number of early applications, reflecting a number of challenges to its elite reputation.

My summary of enrollment trends in 2022-23 provided the roadmap that brought higher education to this point. The path was strewn with issues of declining confidence in higher education, pushback on tuition expenses, emergence of alternative credentialing, diversification of prospective students, and economic recovery that includes abundant employment opportunity.

College rankings are frequently factored into prospective students' decisions and they are viewed with glee or disdain by college/university PR departments. The 2023 rankings reordered some institutions based on a new measure of graduates' social mobility. Vanderbilt University, one of the elites that dropped in ranking, criticized the new methodology and encouraged other universities to consider whether or not they would continue to participate in the U.S. News process. Jim Jump, past-president of the National Association of College Admission Counseling, suggested that Vandy over-reacted and said that ranking of institutions should be about treatment effect rather than selection effect (attributed to Malcom Blackwell). The 2023 World University reputation rankings reflected significant improvement in international presence, a change perhaps attributable to internationalization partnerships.

While students no longer place as much value in college rankings they are still a factor about which institutions worry. Selective colleges able to increase numbers by playing to the rankings and reputation are not backing off. For example, Middlebury College's excess enrollment led to $10,000 payments to students if they wait a year to come to campus and regional colleges are targeting students across state lines to bolster shrinking enrollment.

Beyond college rankings, institutions are targeting prospects in increasingly focused niches. Examples include small colleges targeting athletes by creating new sports programs and "merit" scholarships that are competitive pricing strategies by another name. If there is increased revenue, the key will be if the costs of new programs will be covered and result in a net gain. New programs and competitive pricing is likely a contributing factor to the Fitch Ratings Outlook for Higher Education predicting that less selective colleges and regional universities may have rough water ahead. The S&P Global ratings reinforced similar mixed projections.

Steve Mintz' "what if" list offers questions to ponder as campuses strive to reinvent themselves to be competitive now and in the future. My view is that higher education in the U.S.A. will thrive only if it addresses the following trends:

• Higher education institutions begin to consider the unique niches, shared welfare, and purpose of all higher education as an ecosystem instead of more elite institutions poaching prospects from those with lesser reputations.
• Diverse motivations of prospective students, especially first-generation students from diverse backgrounds, are not only recognized but affirmed.
• The pushback of those who criticize higher education is acknowledged and addressed in constructive ways.
• Governmental support returns as an outcome of recognizing numerous other positive gains for college graduates, reinforcing both a private benefit and a public good.

The cost of higher education rose over the last 50+ years, resulting in many families not having the funds required for their children to pursue higher education. The real cost of attending university is sometimes difficult to determine and legislation is emerging to require greater truth/transparency related to expenses. The College Transparency Initiative, joined by 500+ institutions, launched to help prospective students understand real costs of attendance. Tuition discounting has contributed to the confusion about cost, resulting in a new trend in private colleges (Bridgewater College) rolling back tuition to reflect more accurately the cost of attendance. Rolling back tuition is a risky deal when only a few institutions do it, but the trend has accelerated. The impact of tuition roll-backs may have an immediate positive impact but then dissipate. One study found that regional institutions benefitted from tuition resets while more nationally visible ones did not. The reality of tuition discounting and scholarships is that aid isn't getting to the students with the greatest financial need. Intentionality is key and is demonstrated by the NYTimes analysis of which universities have increased or decreased in proportion of Pell Grant students. Fortunately, while cost is important, prospective students still focus much of their attention on the actual collegiate experience.

The early drafts of the Education Department's "gainful employment" model worried some educational leaders. When the guidelines were published, they included warnings to students who enroll in programs that incur debt that they will have difficulty repaying. Ryan Craig in "What's wrong with college" identifies a number of factors, including misalignment of academic programs with workforce preparation, that he recommends for disruption. While employers of graduates are broadly satisfied with graduates' capabilities, including exposure to a broad spectrum of ideas and viewpoints, more than half of recent 4-year college graduates report being underemployed. Securing an internship reduces underemployment as well as students' choosing academic areas where employment opportunity is readily available. Over the long haul, institutions are likely to need to commit to re-engage with graduates to link them to constant changes in high-demand and new occupations.

With the average cost of instruction calculated at $23/hour, instruction might become one metric students will consider. Students' perception and concerns are confirmed in surveys, one indicating that 71% of current students either agree or strongly agree that attending college is worth it, but 80% perceive the benefit to be only minimal. Another survey indicated that while 85% say that a higher education is important, only 62% of Gen Z prospects plan to pursue it. Sixty-three percent of current high school students express openness to another path to work opportunity, one of which is microcredentialing offered most often by third-party providers outside higher education. Those who have direct experience in higher education generally have greater confidence in its benefit. Justifying the cost students incur changes based on the perception of different outcomes, expanding beyond job prospects and potential earnings to health and satisfaction with the communities where graduates live. However, the general public's confidence in higher education has dropped by an alarming 20% over the last 8 years, with 36% presently having "a great deal" or "quite a lot of confidence in it."

The Biden administration's SAVE initiative responded to the Supreme Court decision that provided college debt relit for lower income students. With putting the plan into action possibly taking up to a year to implement, 175 advocacy groups are demanding that the plan be implemented as quickly as possible. Negotiation for rules on debt relief progressed by using the Higher Education Act of 1965. Countering the Biden administration efforts, Republicans are planning to slash the Education Department's budget by 15% and intend to block the income-based debt relief strategy. Higher education groups condemned the proposed cuts of funding for work study and child care subsidies for parents in college.

Reports about Latino student admission and retention are mixed and they are missing at elite selective institutions. Although common application and direct admission have increased the number of applicants, evidence indicates that enrollment of minoritized, low-income, and first-generation students has not. Census Bureau data showed positive trends in Hispanic students entering and completing higher education but Excelensia in Education found that completion rates remain low. The degree to which a particular institution reflects the demographics of its immediate geographic area is not only a positive indicator of service to the community but has allowed some institutions to buck enrollment trends during tough times. Increasing Latinx student success likely includes multiple factors, including everything from language proficiency programs to lowering the financial burden of attendance and increasing employability outcomes. California state systems universities' commitment to serving Latino students paid off in increasing enrollment. With community colleges disproportionately attracting less served populations, including those of Hispanic heritage, the fact that workforce development programs are offered there is an important attractor. University - employer partnerships can offer an even more direct link between student success and employment. The economic pay off for low-income students favors those with degrees in health and technology and graduates of minority-serving institutions. Modest increases in enrollment at community colleges may reflect the recent moderation of job growth that the U.S. has experienced as well as improved retention strategies.

"Comebackers" are a population that may help bolster enrollment. Research in California determined that those who dropped out could return to complete their degrees if certain enticements were offered. Things like waiving application and enrollment fees, credit for prior learning, flexibility in learning methods, and expanded advising for adult learners would be welcomed.

Graduate student applications and enrollment grew in 2022, but employability and earning potential are key to their satisfaction. Questions remain about the future of both graduate and undergraduate trends for international students. Popular among many international students, the Optional Practical Training stands after the Supreme Court declined to hear a challenge by unions that opposed it. A strategy used during declining domestic enrollment has been to fill the gap with international students through aggressive recruitment initiatives. One such model, the INTO Pathway partnership was popular as institutions sought to tap the international student market but is now faltering in numerous institutions. Policies in other countries can help or hinder the efforts to maintain or grow international student enrollment. Britain's ban of trailing dependents is an example that could hurt British institutions and help the U.S.A. But highly skilled graduates of U.S. institutions are being lured away by offers of special visa status and countries such as Japan may try to attract international students as domestic enrollment plumets.

Because of the perceived discriminatory impact of standardized testing, over 1,900 colleges no longer require SAT and ACT scores. Dartmouth College's returned to recommending submission of test scores based on analysis of the impact on prospective applicants. Brown University followed Dartmouth's lead, with the University of Texas and Cornell following, based on evidence that test scores are better predictors of future academic performance. Harvard and Cal Tech returned to mandatory testing as well. Dartmouth officials indicated that their decision may be unique as Vanderbilt and Missouri chose to extend their test optional decisions. Yale chose a "test-flexible" option. The variability in approaches calls the SAT and ACT monopoly in testing into question, including the prospect of needing an alternative that serves the diversity of prospective students taking that tests.

The question of testing as well as state university systems moving to direct applications is if these strategies actually disadvantage applicants from minoritized backgrounds. The Dartmouth change as well as evidence on early decisions is that they both may advantage more privileged students. Even the high school transcript is being called into question, with some recommending a move to a "next gen competency credential." The move to "wholistic" decision making about prospective students is helpful but some educators caution that extracurricular lists are also biased in favor of those who are privileged by time and access. In the scramble for enrollment, the variability in approach raises multiple questions about what institutions are attempting to accomplish.

Join me in this unfolding question and planning for the preservation, and possible enhancement, of higher education's role in a progressive culture.