2026-27 Enrollment Predictions

Higher education enrollment for 2025-26 increased to pre-pandemic levels with a 1% increase over the numbers in 2019. The data on enrollment for 2026-27 demonstrated that student confidence in pursuing college degrees was stable, regardless of demographic, economic, and AI challenges. Adult and international student enrollment was softer than other other demographic groups. While 1% is unlikely to move the needle for most institutions, competition for admission continues; rejection is humorously hypothesized in this AI generated rejection letter.

Common Apps show increases from underrepresented groups and a decline of international applications. Selective institutions are experiencing the smallest increases. "International students applying dropped 9 percent compared to this point last year, driven by a 14 percent drop in applicants from India." The erratic policies and pronouncements of the Trump administration have created uncertainty that international students must consider when they apply to study abroad. The Trump administration's revocation of 8,000 current international study visas and freezing visas from 74 countries by the Statement Department is one factor contributing to ambivalence. Another factor is that students knew, and evidence reveals, that the Department of Homeland Security deliberately targeted students for their political perspectives, especially those who expressed pro-Palestinian views. The 2025 international student visas dropped 35.6%, which is a clear indication of prospects' concerns. Analysis of the F-1 denials revealed a patterned rejection of countries by the Trump administration, with the highest applicant denials being from African continent, Middle East, and South Asia.

The May 2026 meeting of the National Association of Foreign Student Advisors (NAFSA) was dominated by the quandary of maintaining international enrollment in the face of erratic policy changes under Trump's administration. Institutions that want to increase international enrollment have turned to creative strategies to cultivate prospects, including new markets, expanding online pathways, and growing international partnerships in-country that will allow international students to obtain degrees from U.S. institutions while remaining secure in their home country. The unfortunate part of this is that distance degrees do not offer the wholistic experience that has a trademark of U.S. higher education.

Canada is sticking with its cap on international students which resulted in a 90% decline. Because Canada was previously an attractive options for international students, the U.S. could potentially benefit. Graduate schools in the U.S. are rushing to pursue strategies that will reassure applicants by streamlining processes and improved technology.

Universities are adapting to international enrollment challenges by recruiting students in new markets, expanding online pathways, and growing their collaborations and partnerships with other universities. Direct application also appealed to students from diverse backgrounds or 1st generation entry. The schools that benefit most by offering admission without application are private and health professions are a favorite. The states where larger numbers of students take direct admission offers include California, Pennsylvania, and Texas. The irony is that the pursuit of students from diverse backgrounds is often only a replication of affluent student and high resourced institution models. Based on evidence from Chicago Public Schools college access efforts, "developing students' critical consciousness about the systems shaping their lives, not just their ability to navigate those systems" has to be a central focus.

The irony of the decline in enrollment at non-selective and community colleges is that they are lower cost and they are typically not subject to the political scrutiny that more prominent and elite colleges face. If cost and public perception are so important, how is it that some data show relative stability in the ranks of more expensive and selective institutions? Some selective institutions are turning to students from rural backgrounds to maintain enrollment. Cost transparency is important and it should be coupled with the growing realization among students and families that increased return on investment comes when students attend more visible and elite colleges. The "missing middle" students are sometimes lost in the shuffle of grants and aid to pursue higher education. Having suffered precipitous decline over the last several years, two-thirds of Americans say that attending college is not "worth the cost because people often graduate without specific job sklls and with a large amount of debt to pay off." Of high school graduates who don't even apply to pursue a higher education, 67% cite cost as the reason. Perhaps the result of earlier roll-out and/or ease of completion, or simply because more students seek financial assistance, FAFSA completion reached its highest level (54.7%) and students can now immediately how their applications look to an individual or institution reviewing their applications.

To even the competition, institutions could expand the return on investment from improving just economic opportunity to ongoing financial support while in college, belonging, and ultimately to employment opportunity. Oh, and by the way, offering paid internship opportunities might be a big draw because it enriches students' experience while contributing to covering the cost of attendance. Paid internships can help reduce regional brain drain as demonstrated the Virginia Economic Development Partnerships and offering rural internships is an important way to diversify students' placement opportunities. Attracting rural students is an opportunity to sustain enrollment but attracting them and supporting them requires an institution-wide commitment. Rural and particularly "rust belt" settings have the important secondary impact of revitalizing these economies.

The Trump administration advocated "merit" as the central criteria that colleges should consider in reviewing applications. However, how an institution defines merit varies. Financial aid and "merit" scholarships has disproportionately gone to privileged students rather than under-resourced students, demonstrating that many institutions have used granting merit as a yield tool. The average discounted rate of 57% of college attendance is particularly problematic because it masquerades as merit. Merit has been a consideration for over a century and has often been applied through the lens of holistic review, which factors in variables outside an applicants test scores and grade point average. Athletic prowess is one of the more interesting merit qualities that goes unchallenged, except in Ohio and Idaho where international students may become ineligible for scholarships. The question remains if Trump's view of merit will only focus on the data rather than holistic review of attributes that create a good learning community.

Dr. Julie Park's new book, Race, Class, and Affirmative Action, urges recruitment and admissions strategies that continue to yield diverse and vibrant learning communities. She argues that the 2023 Students for Fair Admission case that challenged affirmative action still allows room for institutions to "continue promoting racial diversity in their admissions processes."