2026-27 Enrollment Predictions

Higher education enrollment for 2025-26 increased to pre-pandemic levels with a 1% increase over the numbers in 2019. The data is beginning to emerge on enrollment for 2026-27. The two contrary trends were in adult and international students.

The early applications on Common App show increases from underrepresented groups and a decline of international applications. Selective institutions are experiencing the smallest increases. "International students applying dropped 9 percent compared to this point last year, driven by a 14 percent drop in applicants from India." The erratic policies and pronouncements of the Trump administration have created uncertainty that international students must consider when they apply to study abroad. The Trump administration's revocation of 8,000 current international study visas and freezing visas from 74 countries by the Statement Department is one factor contributing to ambivalence. Another factor is that students knew, and evidence reveals, that the Department of Homeland Security deliberately targeted students for their political perspectives, especially those who expressed pro-Palestinian views. Institutions that want to increase international enrollment have turned to creative strategies to cultivate prospects, including partnerships in-country that will allow international students to obtain degrees from U.S. institutions while remaining secure in their home country. The unfortunate part of this is that distance degrees do not offer the wholistic experience that has a trademark of U.S. higher education.

Direct application also appealed to students from diverse backgrounds or 1st generation entry. The schools that benefit most by offering admission without application are private and health professions are a favorite. The states where larger numbers of students take direct admission offers include California, Pennsylvania, and Texas. The irony is that the pursuit of students from diverse backgrounds is often only a replication of affluent student and high resourced institution models. Based on evidence from Chicago Public Schools college access efforts, "developing students' critical consciousness about the systems shaping their lives, not just their ability to navigate those systems" has to be a central focus.

The irony of the decline in enrollment at non-selective and community colleges is that they are lower cost and they are typically not subject to the political scrutiny that more prominent and elite colleges face. If cost and public perception are so important, how is it that some data show relative stability in the ranks of more expensive and selective institutions? Cost transparency is important and it should be coupled with the growing realization among students and families that increased return on investment comes when students attend more visible and elite colleges. Having suffered precipitous decline over the last several years, two-thirds of Americans say that attending college is not "worth the cost because people often graduate without specific job sklls and with a large amount of debt to pay off."

To even the competition, institutions could expand the return on investment from improving just economic opportunity to ongoing financial support while in college, belonging, and ultimately to employment opportunity. Oh, and by the way, offering paid internship opportunities might be a big draw because it enriches students' experience while contributing to covering the cost of attendance. Paid internships can also help reduce regional brain drain as demonstrated the Virginia Economic Development Partnerships.

The Trump administration advocated "merit" as the central criteria that colleges should consider in reviewing applications. However, how an institution defines merit varies. Merit has been a consideration for over a century and has often been applied through the lens of holistic review, which factors in variables outside an applicants test scores and grade point average. The question remains if Trump's view of merit will only focus on the data rather than holistic review of attributes that create a good learning community.

Dr. Julie Park's new book, Race, Class, and Affirmative Action, urges recruitment and admissions strategies that continue to yield diverse and vibrant learning communities. She argues that the 2023 Students for Fair Admission case that challenged affirmative action still allows room for institutions to "continue promoting racial diversity in their admissions processes."