War in the Middle East

After watching the attack by Israel and the U.S. on Iran and the resulting war enveloping the entire Middle East, one has to wonder where all of this will lead. Safe havens in the Arabian Gulf for the wealthy who could build more wealth by not having to pay taxes are suddenly the targets of missiles and drones.  Travelers and expatriate workers are looking for a way out but airports close and open depending on the apparent threat of Iranian or friendly fire risks.

Before considering the current dilemma faced by countries in the Gulf region, it's important to have background about the role each has played. Specifically, Qatar has been the global center for diplomacy for some time and especially leading up to the summer of 2025. This role was carefully crafted for geographic, economic, and political purposes. Some have seen Qatar as playing all sides from the middle but, instead, it should be seen as attempting to bring resolution to regional conflicts. The March 2026 Iranian attack on natural gas production in Qatar as well as the disruption of everyday life makes it obvious that Qatar is paying a huge price. Qatar's Prime Minister stated the obvious after Israel's first attack in September - no one benefits from the aggression other than Israel.

U.S. universities who offer programs or branch campuses in the UAE and Qatar moved to virtual learning. Administrators at home and at the branches sites are scrambling to protect, sometimes reassure, and to help those who want a way out. Threats over missiles striking Education City on Saturday, March 14, required evacuation of students from residence halls. QF President for Education Francisco Marmolejo announced, "All the universities have been providing the flexibility for people who decide to leave the country on a temporary basis, with the assumption, of course, that they will come back when the situation becomes more normal." Lebanon University was attacked by Israel resulting in the death of two professors. Attacking Lebanon is part of Israel's assault on the Iranian proxy Hezbollah.

It's hard to predict the long-term consequences for international partnerships in education. Declining interest in partnering is likely but established centers such as Qatar's Education City will hopefully remain as beacons of knowledge diplomacy.

The ripple effect of rising energy costs is something that the US and Israel evidently did not consider. As Iran blocks shipping through the Straits of Hormuz, campuses in Bangladesh and Pakistan are restricting energy use which is forcing them to move classes online.

As the damage in lives lost, property destroyed, reputations tarnished, and dashed hope rises, it is hard to figure out what the motivation(s) were to attack. Pronouncements by President Trump and military staff conflict, causing questions or disbelief that any of what is being said is honest. As opposition to the attacks by the U.S. and Israel on Iran continued to unfold, GOP House leaders pushed the narrative that U.S. higher education is systemically antisemitic. This view is central to controlling criticism of Israel and Trump administration complicity. Was there a threat that Iran was ready to attack or is this simply a very costly distraction from the reality of failed governance, desperation for respect, and striving to accumulate more wealth? As the story unfolds, I will add more commentary by linking to others' analysis.

The Brookings Institute summary provides both background and proposes scenarios of where the war on Iran is headed. What is clear is that regime change is unlikely and that the best outcome is some sort of "deal" that allows Trump to save face but leaves Iran to its own devices to maintain or modify its governmental rule.