Resisting the Trump Compact - What happened?

Growing competition for international students

The "Big 4" destinations for international students used to be pretty definitive - United States, United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada. The number is expanding and now includes 14 different countries and Canada may be slipping faster than the other 3 of the big 4. Affordability is a key issue, especially among Chinese students who are looking for educational opportunity as China's economy and job opportunity for young people declines. Other important factors include "linguistic familiarity, geographical proximity and - arguably - better employment and internship opportunities."

Eight-five percent of U.S. educators blame the decline in U.S. international enrollment on Trump administration visa restrictions and government regulations. While U.S. enrollment struggles the international numbers are up in Asia and Europe.

Chinese students fueled graduate program enrollment in particular, which underwrote and supported domestic graduate students at U.S. institutions. The Chinese enrollment "grew from around 62,000 to over 317,000" from 2005 to 2019. As of 2025, more Chinese students studied in countries outside the "Big 4" than any of their individual enrollments. If the international higher education espoused purpose was to increase access, competition from Asia and the Middle East is an indication that it worked. In numerous cases the founders of new institutions that are now competing with the "Big 4" were educated in U.S. institutions. They went back to their home countries as founders of new institutions and educational partnerships.

For those committed to wholistic education and student affairs programs, the challenge is that sometimes internationals who studied in the U.S. didn't actually engage fully. Out of class engagement in U.S. institutions varies greatly by students' country origin and campus environment, an issue seldom addressed through intentional initiatives. Roberts & Ammigan (2014) assembled expert authors who contributed chapters advising education leaders on how to do a better job and perhaps it's time to take a deeper dive into how international students experience their days in the U.S. A brief introduction to Supporting International Students in U.S. Higher Education introduces this theory and practice informed resource.

The current decrease in undergraduate and graduate international students, largely fueled by uncertainties inflicted by the Trump administration, extends into next year with 2026-27 Common Apps down. Higher education leaders are pushing for higher education to be exempt from the new $100,000 H1-B visas in order to improve the prospects for post-graduate training that is a significant motivator for international students. More broadly, hostile immigration policies and enforcement are creating uncertainty among all international students who would have previously liked to study in the U.S.

In a bizarre reversal of sentiment, Trump declared on Fox news that higher education should continue enrolling international students. His rationale - the financial gain they bring to budgets - nothing about the quality of the learning environment or knowledge diplomacy! Trump's changing stance, and contradiction of his appointees, cause international applicants to wonder where the US stands. The sad reality is that international students deserve to be treated as more than an financial commodity. Of particular note are J-1 and OPT visas, which are a highly valued for international students that granting of which can be unpredictable or exploitive.

Are students flourishing?

There is not much question that higher education is experiencing a shake up in enrollment. My previous blog post on 2025-26 enrollment provides background with some ups and lots of downs for this year and years to come. The negativity that Trump and his appointees, particularly in the Education Department, have fostered has undermined confidence in U.S. higher education. However, most of the evidence is that students are still interested in pursuing degrees but the perceived return on investment varies by state and many other factors. Workforce placement of college graduates has declined but their salaries continued to be higher than non-college graduates. Although not clearly understood, the motivation to complete a degree is a combination of preparing for future work and the rest is about quality of life. The appeal for international students may be a bit more complex, primarily due to erratic changes in visa policies unfolding every day.

Even when the waters are rough, higher education faculty and staff know that they have to maintain focus on what's important - retention and graduation. I've been a fan of instruments such as the HERI First-Year Survey and the National Survey of Student Engagement. Having used both extensively to determine students' patterns of engagement, satisfaction, and achievement of goals, they provide longitudinal and comparative data that is extremely useful in determining how to improve students' experience. The Generation Lab findings show that most students at U.S. campuses believe they are valued and supported, which is key to satisfaction and retention. Unfortunately, the Student Voice Survey found that about a third of students are disengaged outside of class. This research helped by determining the motivations for student involvement and what approaches are attractive to them. Students of diverse cultural and first-generation backgrounds often feel less valued and included, which should be addressed from a strength and resilience lens rather than as a deficit.

While HERI, NSSE, and Student Voice are useful and results allow educators to look back and plan forward, the administration and results are from a time and place that is static. The University of Arizona created the New Student Information Form (NSIF) that allows staff "to respond to individuals' needs and create strategic initiatives within various departments and offices that ensure no student is left behind." Having access to "in the moment" information can then be used to target individual students or groups. The first 6 weeks at college are particularly important as students establish patterns of engagement, apathy, or disillusionment. Concerns such as affordability, making friends, getting a job, and navigating difficult political dynamics often trouble students. In general, each of these surveys support a "steady as she goes" focus for student affairs work. Some institutions are pushing even harder by creating incentives for student involvement. Lynn University and University of Kentucky provide financial rewards, recognizing that student involvement is often undermined by students' need to work.

Beyond these practical measures of participation and needs, another issue that is critical to study is if students are developing in ways that allow them to flourish. Are they developing in ways that will foster the good life that so many hope for as an outcome of the college experience? Harvard University has been studying flourishing and created the Flourishing survey that will be available for broader institutional use in the Spring of 2026. Part of the Human Flourishing Program, the higher education survey will be used to help institutions determine how and where to focus efforts to foster flourishing as a lifestyle commitment and as a quantifiable outcome of attending college.